Trade Analysis and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 159.37 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential.

The lack of clear direction led the USD/JPY pair to continue trading within a sideways range during the first half of the day. Now everything depends on how traders interpret the extension of the pause in the U.S.–Iran military conflict and whether they consider it sufficient to return meaningfully to buying risk assets, including the Japanese yen. Clearly, under such uncertainty, the market tends to consolidate, waiting for clearer signals. In the absence of important fundamental data, traders also typically prefer caution, avoiding large positions until the situation becomes clearer. Therefore, until new and more meaningful catalysts appear, USD/JPY is likely to continue trading within a limited range, reacting to developments in Middle East diplomacy.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached around 159.39 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 159.81 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.81, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). A rise in the pair today may occur if the U.S. and Iran maintain a hard stance.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 159.23, while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward 159.39 and 159.81 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 159.23 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 158.65, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal). Pressure on the pair may return today if there is positive news from the Middle East.Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and has just begun declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 159.39, while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 159.23 and 158.65 can then be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line — entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line — estimated Take Profit level or manual profit-taking level, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line — entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line — estimated Take Profit level or manual profit-taking level, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important note: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, from the outset, a losing intraday strategy.