Trade Analysis and Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 147.60 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero level, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. However, the upward movement reached only about 25 points before demand declined.

Today, we expect speeches from FOMC members Susan Collins, Lisa Cook, and Mary Daly. A favorable outcome for the yen is possible if their statements suggest the likelihood of monetary policy easing. Close attention to the remarks of Federal Reserve officials will be crucial for forecasting currency trends. Cautious comments regarding further rate cuts may trigger a significant increase in bullish sentiment toward the yen. However, nuances matter. Individual opinions not supported by broader FOMC consensus are unlikely to have lasting impact. The market will seek confirmation of dovish views from other Fed policymakers. Also important will be the specific reasons cited by FOMC members for any potential policy shift—whether it be slowing inflation, a deteriorating labor market, or threats to financial stability. Each of these would carry different weight and affect EUR/USD behavior in its own way.

For today's intraday strategy, I'll be relying primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 147.92 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 148.45 (thicker green line). Around 148.45, I will exit the buy trade and open a sell position in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). A solid rally in the pair today is only likely if the Fed maintains a hawkish tone. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the 147.54 level while the MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward 147.92 and 148.45 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout below 147.54 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 146.97, where I will exit the short position and open a buy trade in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal). Pressure on the pair may return if Fed officials adopt a dovish stance. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today after two consecutive tests of the 147.92 level while the MACD is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A drop toward 147.54 and 146.97 can then be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price to buy the instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profit, as further growth is unlikely above this level;
• Thin red line – entry price to sell the instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profit, as further decline is unlikely below this level;
• MACD Indicator – use overbought/oversold zones to guide market entries.

Important Note for Beginner Forex Traders:

Beginner traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to limit losses. Without them, you could quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.