Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are not many macroeconomic releases scheduled for Friday, but there will be some. In Germany, the UK, and the Eurozone, the event calendars are empty, but in the U.S., reports on industrial production, retail sales, and consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan will be published. These are relatively important data, and they may trigger trader reaction if the actual figures differ from the forecasts. The greater the deviation, the stronger the potential market reaction.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Friday's fundamental events, the talks between the Russian and U.S. leaders in Alaska should be noted. The negotiations will start late in the evening, and no one knows when they will end. Therefore, most likely, the foreign exchange market will have already closed by the time any information about the talks becomes available. Nevertheless, this event should be kept in mind, as it could trigger strong market volatility.

The top focus for traders remains the trade war, which gained new momentum last week. We still believe that any trade agreements that maintain tariffs are essentially the same trade war "under a different guise." For the U.S., of course, deals similar to those made with the European Union or Japan are beneficial. Therefore, each new such deal may provoke growth in the U.S. dollar. However, globally and fundamentally, the market will keep in mind the new trade architecture and Donald Trump's protectionist policies. Under such fundamental conditions, the dollar is unlikely to show convincing growth.

Conclusions:

On the final trading day of the week, both currency pairs may resume growth. Yesterday, both pairs corrected but encountered important levels or support lines. Today's news will come only in the second half of the day. Weak U.S. economic data would be a new reason to sell the dollar. Successful negotiations in Alaska would be another reason to sell the dollar. Upward trends remain in place, and until they are broken, we see no reason to sell.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.