Trade Review and Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1667 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the euro and resulted in a rise of more than 25 points.

The maintenance of a positive balance on the ECB's current operations supported the euro's recovery during the European trading session. It is clear that even such internal factors had a positive effect, which in turn boosted investor confidence in the euro's prospects.

Going forward, the euro's dynamics will be determined by various factors, including ECB policy on interest rates, developments in the region's geopolitical situation, and global economic trends. In the second half of the day, market participants will shift their focus to North America, where the key event will be the release of U.S. housing market data. Investors will focus on the number of building permits issued and the volume of new construction projects. These figures are expected to provide more clarity on how high interest rates and inflationary pressure are affecting housing demand and construction activity. In addition, a significant event will be the speech of FOMC member Michelle Bowman. Analysts and traders will closely analyze her statements, looking for signals regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. Special attention will be paid to her assessments of the current level of inflation, economic growth prospects, and possible adjustments to interest rates. Any unexpected remarks or deviations from the expected stance could trigger market fluctuations and influence the value of the U.S. dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases are possible at the price level of around 1.1693 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1722. At 1.1722, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35-point move from the entry point. A strong rally in the euro today can only be expected if U.S. statistics come in weak. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1674 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1693 and 1.1722 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1674 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1646, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move back from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if U.S. statistics are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1693 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1674 and 1.1646 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – assumed price where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – assumed price where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade with large volumes without money management.

And remember, successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, such as the one I outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based only on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.