Review of trades and tips on trading the euro

The designated levels I mentioned earlier today were not tested in the first half of the session.

News that the euro area consumer price index in June this year showed no change compared with May, holding at 2.0%, caused a slight rise in the euro in the first half of the day. However, volatility was low, and no test of the nearest major resistance level occurred. The ECB is expected to maintain a conservative monetary policy stance, given uncertainties in trade policy and potential risks tied to inflationary pressures.

This afternoon, the key driver will be the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting. The published FOMC minutes will provide more detailed insight into the discussions among committee members. Investors are particularly interested in whether the cautious approach regarding the timing and scale of further interest rate changes will be confirmed or challenged. Any signals of an accelerated tightening of monetary policy could spark U.S. dollar strength and reduce appetite for riskier assets.

Also today, speeches by FOMC members Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic are expected. These events will influence trading dynamics as market participants closely watch for any hints regarding the Fed's future monetary policy decisions. FOMC members often use public speeches to express their views on the current state of the economy and its outlook. Investors will assess their rhetoric to gauge the seriousness of inflation concerns and the speed with which the Fed intends to respond to existing risks.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro at around 1.1659 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 1.1702. At 1.1702, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry level. A strong euro rally today is unlikely.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to move upward.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1633 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.1659 and 1.1702 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1633 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1594, where I intend to exit and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the Fed takes a hawkish stance.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to move downward.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1659 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would cap the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1633 and 1.1594 can then be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – suggested level to place Take Profit or lock in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – suggested level to place Take Profit or lock in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation are by default a losing strategy for an intraday trader.