Gold and silver futures: outlook for 2025

Let's explore the development of silver futures on the Moscow Exchange, gold price forecasts for 2025, and the factors influencing the dynamics of precious metals.

This article delves into the topic of gold futures trading on an exchange. Metals with a history spanning thousands of years continue to play a key role in the modern global economy. Their significance extends far beyond their raw material function: they have become the foundation of the financial architecture, an instrument of trust, and a pillar of stability. G20 central banks are building up reserves, emerging economies are striving for de-dollarization, and large funds are diversifying portfolios with “hard assets.” The reason lies in preserving purchasing power and protecting capital during periods of global imbalances.

Financial contracts for deferred delivery (futures) are one of the main instruments ensuring liquidity and predictability in this market. These are standardized agreements that allow fixing the price of an asset today for settlement in the future. They are used for two main purposes: hedging against unfavorable price movements and profiting from price fluctuations. Their complexity, and at the same time their advantage, lies in their high sensitivity to macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation expectations, and currency policy.

The situation in 2024-2025 significantly increases interest in such assets. The world has entered a phase of geoeconomic strain. Conflict zones are multiplying. Currency wars are intensifying. Debt burdens in the largest economies exceed historical highs. Monetary authorities are constrained in their maneuvers: inflationary pressure prevents endless money printing, while high rates slow growth and stimulate capital outflows from riskier segments.

Against this backdrop, demand is growing for safe and transparent mechanisms for preserving value. Perpetual gold futures contracts are becoming an important indicator of sentiment and risk, while simultaneously opening opportunities for speculative trading, strategic hedging, and tactical capital reallocation.

In addition, the role of industrial demand is growing. The energy, electronics, medical, and new technology sectors are increasing consumption. At the same time, logistics challenges, underinvestment in mining, and regulatory restrictions create a risk of supply shortages. This amplifies price volatility and attracts short-term capital.

This material offers a structured analysis of the situation: the key drivers of price changes, an assessment of institutional and retail behavior, and the influence of regulators and systemic events. Special attention is given to potential scenarios for 2025 and practical strategies that can be used in a volatile market. The goal is to provide the reader not just with an overview, but with an analytical tool capable of improving decision-making and enhancing asset management efficiency.

Understanding precious metals futures

A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell an asset at a fixed price on a predetermined date in the future. All parameters, including volume, quality, exchange, settlement currency, and delivery terms, are standardized. The main purpose is to protect against price fluctuations or to profit from changes in the value of the underlying asset. These contracts are actively used both in the corporate sphere (producers, consumers, funds) and by private traders.

• Transactions are executed on specialized platforms. The largest include COMEX (US, part of CME Group), NYMEX (energy and metals, also under CME), MCX (India, a leading platform in Asia), and LME (London Metal Exchange). Each operates a clearing system that guarantees contract fulfillment and reduces counterparty risk. The precious metals market is among the largest in the world.
• A distinctive feature of these contracts is the absence of physical delivery in most cases. Over 90% of trades are closed before the expiration date. This means that trading is conducted for price changes, not for owning the actual commodity. Exchanges require margin collateral, a deposit that a participant must place to enter a trade. The margin size depends on volatility and the position taken (long or short).
• There are differences between instruments linked to different metals. Some have higher liquidity, while others display greater volatility. One is more often used as a macroeconomic barometer, the other as an indicator of industrial demand. Contract standards vary in lot size: on COMEX, for example, one futures contract corresponds to 100 troy ounces of one metal and 5,000 ounces of another. This is an important factor to consider when choosing a strategy.
• Futures serve a dual role. On the one hand, they serve as a hedging tool that protects against unfavorable price movements. For example, a producer can lock in prices several months ahead, minimizing losses if quotes fall. On the other hand, they are a speculative tool, where the main goal is to profit from short-term price movements. Opening a long or short position, such as on silver futures on the Moscow Exchange, depends on expectations of price growth or decline.

Thanks to high liquidity, standardization, and transparency, this instrument has become a universal platform for assessing market participants’ expectations. Contracts instantly reflect macroeconomic events, central bank decisions, and geopolitical risks. Analyzing changes in open interest, volumes, and the behavior of major players helps determine the market’s direction.

Deferred delivery contracts are a powerful tool for both professionals and those building long-term financial strategies. They allow for risk control, income scaling, and flexible responses to changes in the global environment.

Global context and key factors for 2024-2025

The global economy is moving in an environment of heightened turbulence. Key geopolitical events of 2024 continue to fuel tensions: military conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, strategic competition between the United States and China, and instability along global trade routes.

Political elections in key countries are adding uncertainty. The United States, India, and several EU member states have entered an electoral cycle that is shifting priorities in foreign economic policy. This affects supply chains, logistics, and capital allocation.

Monetary policy of the world’s largest central banks remains the main driver of macroeconomic conditions. The Federal Reserve maintains a tight stance, keeping interest rates high to curb inflation. This supports the US dollar but simultaneously restrains business activity. The European Central Bank continues to balance the fight against rising prices with the need to stimulate the eurozone’s sluggish economy. The People’s Bank of China is acting asymmetrically, lowering rates and supporting liquidity to stimulate domestic demand amid low inflation and ongoing problems in the real estate market.

We continue to examine the gold price outlook for 2025.

Inflation remains persistently high in developing countries and volatile in advanced economies. Rising prices for food, fuel, services, and commodities are prompting a revaluation of assets that can preserve purchasing power. Market attention is focused on the dollar exchange rate, US bond yields, and the spreads between corporate and government debt instruments. Higher government bond yields are drawing capital away from riskier assets while simultaneously putting pressure on emerging market currencies.

The energy sector remains under pressure. Restrictions on hydrocarbon exports, instability in the Middle East, and declining investment in resource exploration are boosting the production costs of metals. Energy is a key cost item for processing plants and mining companies. Rising oil and gas prices automatically reduce production profitability, especially in regions with outdated infrastructure.

A long-term structural factor is the global shift toward decarbonization. The transition to clean technologies requires ramping up production of solar panels, batteries, hydrogen energy systems, and grid infrastructure. This is driving strong demand for specific elements, especially those used in photovoltaics and conductors. Analysts forecast that consumption of these resources will increase two to three times by 2030, starting from the current five-year period.

The market is responding to this trend with growth in contracts for deferred delivery, indicating participants’ confidence in further price increases. This combination of political risks, limited supply, energy system transformation, and monetary pressures is shaping a unique historical moment in which physically backed assets such as gold futures traded on exchanges are coming to the forefront as a strategic resource.

Gold futures market overview

In 2024, the market fluctuated within the range of $1,850-$2,450 per troy ounce. The main growth momentum occurred in March-April, a period marked by heightened geopolitical risks, intensified concerns over banking stability, and rising expectations of a pause in US monetary tightening.

The summer pullback was linked to a stronger dollar, higher bond yields, and profit-taking by major players. By autumn, prices stabilized around $2,300, while the market remained sensitive to Federal Reserve statements and macroeconomic data releases.

According to the COT Report (Commitments of Traders), speculative funds increased long positions in the first quarter of 2024. The share of longs in managed money exceeded 70%, confirming strong interest from institutional investors. Hedge funds and CTAs focused on momentum-driven trades, while producers actively took short positions to lock in future margins. Physically backed ETFs saw asset inflows mid-year, especially in Europe and Asia, regions with elevated demand for safe-haven assets. Central banks in emerging markets, particularly China, Turkey, and India, continued to build reserves.

Seasonality has a noticeable impact. January, September, and November traditionally show increased activity, driven by gold demand from the jewelry industry and holiday preparations in Asia. July and August are more often correction phases. On a broader cycle, peak activity often coincides with interest rate cuts and dollar weakness. Historically, periods of crises, deflationary expectations, and heightened stock market volatility have spurred a sharp inflow into safe-haven assets.

Key correlations remain intact. The inverse relationship with the US dollar index (DXY) persists: prices fall when the dollar strengthens and rise when it weakens. The link with equities is mixed: during stock market corrections, demand for more stable capital preservation instruments tends to grow. The relationship with bonds is stricter: higher US Treasury yields under stable inflation put pressure on gold prices, but when rate cuts are anticipated, liquidity flows into commodities.

Technically, 2024 formed a steady upward channel. Key support was at $1,980, with strong resistance at $2,450. The breakout above $2,370 in April triggered a short-term bullish trend, but heavy selling volumes prevented the market from holding above $2,400. The RSI, MACD, and volume indicators confirmed overbought conditions at peaks. The formation of a flag pattern at year-end suggests likely consolidation before the next impulse.

Contracts for this asset remain a barometer of global risk, a destination for capital in times of uncertainty, and a technically well-defined field for short- and medium-term speculation. Understanding the market structure for precious metals, its macroeconomic linkages, and behavioral patterns enables traders to build strategies and account for probable scenarios.

Silver futures: undervalued asset?

This metal is unique. It combines the qualities of a financial instrument with those of an irreplaceable industrial component. It is used in electronics, medical equipment, solar panels, batteries, automotive electronics, and the defense industry. Its advantages include high electrical conductivity, antimicrobial properties, and reflectivity. These qualities ensure steady demand regardless of the phase of the economic cycle.

In 2024, prices fluctuated between $21 and $32 per ounce. Sharp movements were recorded during periods of heightened geopolitical tensions, inflation data releases, and statements from major central banks. Volatility in this asset traditionally exceeds that of other metals in the segment. This creates risks for hedgers but also offers greater opportunities for those trading short- and medium-term price swings.

Fundamental demand is strengthening. In 2024, the solar energy sector set records for installed capacity. Each megawatt of capacity requires about 20 kg of silver. China, the United States, India, and Southeast Asian countries are expanding solar panel installations on a large scale. Electric vehicles contain two to three times more silver-based components compared to internal combustion engine vehicles. Microchip production also relies on silver, as it ensures precise signal transmission and protection against overheating.

When looking at silver futures on the Moscow Exchange, the ratio to its more expensive counterpart (the gold/silver ratio) serves as an indicator of imbalance. Historically, a range of 60-70 is considered balanced. In 2024, the ratio fluctuated between 80 and 90, indicating potential undervaluation. At its peak, it exceeded 100, a level seen only during crisis periods. When this ratio begins to fall, it often signals a price surge in the less expensive asset.

Activity in the futures market has increased. COT reports show growth in open long positions among speculative participants. Physically backed ETFs recorded inflows from April to September. Bank analysts and industry funds point to a supply deficit amid stable or rising demand. Mining output is failing to keep pace with consumption, especially in Latin American countries, where infrastructure is outdated and regulations are tightening.

Many view this instrument as a “spring” that has not yet fully uncoiled. Relative undervaluation, industrial significance, the shift toward green energy, and high sensitivity to macro factors make it one of the most promising contracts for 2025. With the right strategy, traders can capitalize on price momentum and cyclical patterns to build strong positions.

Scenario forecast

The coming year presents several possible trajectories for the price of precious metals. Let us examine the 2025 gold price forecast. The outcome will depend on US monetary policy, the dynamics of geopolitical risks, and the pace of industrial demand. All key scenarios, from aggressive growth to a moderate correction, must be considered when building a strategy. Flexibility of thinking and readiness to adapt are more important than any attempt to pinpoint the perfect entry level.

Table of price movement scenarios and key factors

All three scenarios require different approaches to capital management. The base path, suggesting gradual strengthening with background corrections, remains the most probable. However, an unexpected intensification of geopolitical or economic factors could quickly switch the market into bullish mode, which may put pressure on gold futures on the exchange. Preparing for sharp trend reversals and continuously revising parameters will be the key to sustainable results in 2025.

Strategies for traders and investors

Dealing in deferred-delivery contracts requires a clear understanding of market rules. Leverage can amplify returns but also increase risk. A single standard agreement controls a large volume of the asset. On COMEX, this is 100 troy ounces, where a $1 move equals $100 in profit or loss. Exchanges require margin collateral, averaging 4-8% of the position’s notional value.

In periods of high volatility, exchanges may impose higher requirements. Monitoring the maintenance margin level is crucial for effective liquidity management. A drop in the perpetual gold futures price below the allowed threshold triggers a forced position closure (margin call) unless the account is topped up.

For those unprepared for daily contract management, there are alternatives. Physically backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) mirror the movements of the underlying asset while allowing for smaller capital outlays and eliminating delivery obligations. Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to execute, reducing potential losses. Those who prefer the over-the-counter format may opt for bullion, coins, or storage in certified banks. These forms are relevant for long-term positioning and for reducing correlation with financial markets.

Medium-term strategies are built on cyclicality. Analysis of seasonal patterns, large traders’ position reports, and macroeconomic indicators enables the creation of stable entry models. A reasonable time frame is 3-12 months, factoring in corrections and central bank influence. A long-term approach requires evaluating structural trends: the energy transition, de-dollarization, supply shortages, and rising industrial demand. The focus is on structural shifts in supply and demand, not on short-term volatility.

During periods of sharp price swings, hedging becomes a survival tool. Producers and refiners protect their profits by taking short positions. Private market participants lock in returns via spreads, whether calendar or intermarket. Portfolios correlated with the commodities market can use inverse exposure to reduce systemic risk. The key is flexibility and understanding that the precious metals market depends on multiple factors.

Psychological resilience determines the outcome. Rapid price moves, media noise, and unpredictable regulator decisions all provoke mistakes. Discipline, scenario-based thinking, and risk management form the foundation of success. Relying on data rather than emotion is what separates professionals from casual participants. Avoiding overestimation of short-term profits in favor of a systematic approach helps preserve positions even during temporary drawdowns.

Precious metals contracts are not merely speculative tools. They represent a strategic arena where logic, analysis, behavior, and risk control converge. A successful participant uses the full arsenal available — from futures to ETFs, from charts to fundamental reports, from trading systems to discipline.

Conclusion

The financial and commodity landscape of 2025 is being shaped by profound structural shifts. Central banks are balancing between inflation and recession, global conflicts are destabilizing markets, and the energy transition is reshaping supply chains. Assets capable of preserving value in conditions of macro instability are coming to the forefront.

Deferred delivery contracts for key resources remain a focal point for institutional investors, sovereign funds, and private strategists. The behavior of speculators and hedgers reflects market participants’ fears and hopes faster than any index. The activity of the central banks of BRICS nations, growth in industrial demand, de-dollarization, technological progress, and climate change are the main drivers of the new cycle.

Scenario analysis confirms the potential for sustainable growth under current macroeconomic conditions. If crisis signals intensify, accelerated upward moves are possible. In the event of inflation stabilization and a stronger dollar, a partial correction could follow. The key parameters are the course of US and Chinese monetary policy and geopolitical turning points: the situation in Taiwan, Europe’s energy security, and military conflicts in resource-rich regions.

For example, a silver futures contract on the Moscow Exchange is equally dependent on all the above-mentioned factors.

Risks persist: unexpected regulator decisions, market manipulation, liquidity crises, and technological disruptions. The use of AI in algorithmic trading increases short-term fluctuations, reducing predictability. Chaotic price movements can derail strategies based on classical technical analysis. Therefore, flexibility, risk management, and constant model updates have become essential.

Physically limited supply and global demand with steady sectoral drivers give these assets a unique role as a universal protective instrument. They serve not only as a hedge against systemic risks but also as a component of a diversified portfolio not directly tied to equity or debt returns.

Passive waiting is giving way to the necessity of deliberate choice. Success requires not guessing price moves but applying a systematic approach: analysis, planning, and discipline. Mastering the fundamentals of derivatives, working with data, and understanding market behavior in volatile conditions are key skills that create a lasting edge. In this article, we reflected on what a gold price forecast for 2025 might look like.

A sound strategy is not a bet but an algorithm. Continuous learning, fine-tuning decision-making systems, and readiness to adapt to new conditions turn market participation from a lottery into a professional practice. The year 2025 is a time for those who act precisely, timely, and consciously.