Gold posted its worst daily drop in two weeks amid the collapse of US–Iran talks, Kevin Warsh's hawkish rhetoric before the Senate Banking Committee, and a surge in US retail sales in March at the fastest pace in at least a year. The US economy looks healthy, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates, so rising oil supports the US dollar. In this environment, XAU/USD is out of its element.

Gold and oil dynamics

Pressure on the precious metal from a rally in the oil market is coming from two directions. Higher oil aggravates the risk of accelerating inflation, which forces central banks—led by the Fed—to either keep interest rates high or raise them. Global monetary tightening fuels a bond yield rally. Gold, which pays no interest, cannot compete with fixed-income securities when their yields rise.

The higher Brent and WTI climb, the greater the risks of stagflation and then recession in the global economy. That in turn can force central banks to sell previously acquired bars to keep GDP afloat. For example, Russia has disposed of 22 tonnes of gold since the start of the year, including 6.2 tonnes in March alone. The proceeds helped plug budget holes. As a result, reserves fell to 2,304.76 tonnes.

A return by central banks to buying bullion, coupled with concerns about US financial stability and a resumed Fed easing cycle, underpins HSBC's bullish gold forecast. Standard Chartered, by contrast, expects the average price of the metal to fall to $4,605/oz in Q2 due to accelerating consumer prices worldwide and central banks' mass tightening. However, it sees prices rising to an average of $4,850/oz in Q3.

Gold does face tough times. Senate opposition could prevent Kevin Warsh from becoming Fed chair until nearly the end of June. Jerome Powell is likely to retain the post, which—combined with a potential inflation pickup from higher oil—could revive talk of lifting the federal funds rate. Bad news for XAU/USD.

It's not a given fact that Kevin Warsh will cut interest rates as Donald Trump demands. In his Senate remarks, he accused the Fed of stoking inflation in 2020–2021, arguing it adopted a rule that tolerated prices above 2% because of low values in earlier periods. As a result, the Fed had to tighten aggressively in 2022–2023.

Technically, the daily chart shows gold consolidating in the $4,670–4,860/oz range. A break below the lower band near $4,670 would be a trigger to sell XAU/USD. Conversely, a successful assault on resistance at $4,860 would be a reason to buy the metal.